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Introduction:

Where do scientists actually have their information from when they are saying that the world will be heating up over the next decades, or that the hurricanes will get stronger, or rainfalls more violent?

The only way to get such information is through huge and very complicated computer models. To make for example a climate models, scientists need to determine what the main factors are that influence climate and how these factors then influence. When talking about climate, we are talking on a global scale, and in since there are many factors involved - greenhouse gases, ocean currents, global wind systems, humidity, solar variations, cloud types and cover, ice cover, effect of vegetation on reflection of sunlight, soot and other particles in the atmosphere, and many more factors. No wonder that super computers are needed to be able to calculate the billions of possible combinations of these factors.

The method to find out if such a model is reliable is then to run it against known conditions. So the scientists also need detailed information about the past temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, solar variations, wind and ocean systems, etc. They can then compare the results of the computer model with the ones that have actually been measured. If these combine well, then there is a good chance that the model also predicts the future well.

The next step is then that the modelers describe a number of scenarios - for example as on extreme that there is no change in energy policies, and at the other that the world changes to completely renewable energy production over the next 30 years. The results on the climate can then be seen for the various scenarios.
The problem so far has been that all computer models have been overtaken by reality. The actual situation has turned out worse than the worst case scenarios. This both shows that the models are not good enough in describing what will happen. But it also shows that not enough is being done. The lame efforts taken by the ones in power are no match for a heating planet.

Directive:

1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; See the video "Consequences and Climate Models". 10 minutes.

2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Read the file "How Reliable are Climate Models?"

3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Write down what you think are the reasons for the actual picture in many cases turning out to be worse than the models.

4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Make a list of the main factors that influence climate changes in your country - such as changes in specific wind or ocean currents.
Send your lists to your teacher.

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