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Introduction:

An extrapolation of the political scene in Europe, this complex of various interests, forces 
and developments, will be hard to squeeze into relative clear statements and predictions. 
The political, economic and social and cultural realities are closely linked, but the living 
conditions of the Europeans, the organization of the political and economical structures and 
the relations to outside Europe must be important. 
 
The present, mid-2014, political scene in Europe is strongly influenced by the economical 
crisis, especially the debt crisis in Southern Europe. The general growth in EU is smaller 
than in the parts of the world that Europe usually compares with. 
 
The economic situation has not been that bad for many decades, and that goes for the 
unemployment as well. The unemployment, especially among the youth, is massive and 
alarming. The development in the, rich, northern Europe and the, poorer, southern Europe 
generates tensions. At the same time the gap between rich and poor in Europe is widening. 
The 2014 election to the European parliament has shown a greater amount of scepticism 
towards the EU than is seen for a long time and also an increasing ignorance to what 
happens in the EU. The parliament works for more influence, and efforts towards a more 
federal structure for EU continue. 
 
The European Commission has initiated talks towards a free trade agreement with the 
United States. So far it has not been the intention to include the public in these talks and 
eventually provoke too much political turbulence. Anyways protests are starting. 
Europe/EU still hesitate in taking the decisive steps towards fighting the climate changes 
and their consequences, and the EU is still one of real heavy polluters. 
 
The World is still in the aftermath of the American Middle East wars. Syria in the border 
region of Europe is experiencing a devastating civil war, the result of which no one can 
foresee because so many different interests collide. Europe fears the consequences and 
some European countries have joined the US in an air born intervention in Syria and Iraq. 
One of the European fears is the millions of refugees, produced by these conflicts, many 
heading for Europe. Egypt is not yet stable after removing one dictator for to see another 
one to take over. Ukraine is going through a political crisis in which both EU and Russia 
play significant roles. Eastern European countries are very attentive on the situation. 
Unrest and poverty in the world makes people try to migrate to Europe, both in legal and 
illegal, dangerous, ways. The pressure from migrants from outside has been stronger in the 
recent years. Many European countries resent welcoming immigrants, the fortress of 
Europe still plays a significant role. 
 
The political leadership has in this relatively turbulent period often shown to be an issue 
between the &ldquo;old&rdquo; big European national powers like Germany, France, Great Britain, not 
the European institutions, and not an issue for the people in Europe to be included in for 
real. And behind the politicians is a whole system of investors and financial institutions 
increasing their capital and executing their power. So who leads in reality? 
 
Throughout European history there have been many conflicts, politically an economically, 
though the recent years has shown relatively peaceful. A main issue is the role and the 
structure of the EU, because the EU will be the eventual body within which economic 
crisis, migration and refugees, conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, free trade agreement etc. will 
be dealt with, and still more countries, like Serbia and maybe still Turkey, are applying for 
membership. 
 
There have been many protests, demonstrations from the people in Europe against the 
political and economic circumstances. The latest general ignorance of the EU 
parliamentary elections and a, hopefully temporary, support of far right movements are 
also signals of protests. To extrapolate the future it is vital to look to the people in Europe, 
their situation, their wishes and their readiness to take a stand or take to action.

Directive:

Read the introduction and the questions and make sure you understand the overall aim of 
the task. 
Read ALL the files. 
 
How to use this task: 
 
Variant 1.
<div style="margin-left: 40px;">You can solve the task individually by answering all the questions in the form of a 3-page 
text.</div>
 
Variant 2. 
You can solve the task commonly, where your teammates and you share different parts of 
the topic among yourselves and present to each other in a form of a course. The whole 
course with all the parts shouldn&rsquo;t exceed 2 hours. 
 
Each one of you will end up with a 1-page text about your part of the topic and the 
conclusion from your part of the course. All the materials you used for your part of the 
course should also be send to your teacher. 
 
Use additional sources if you find it beneficial, especially if you have chosen the variant 2. 
The origin of additional sources must be noted for control. 
 
Issues related to the topic: 
There are many files, select the ones you want to ponder, be inspired by the rest. 
&bull; File 1: Democracy and governance
<div style="margin-left: 40px;">&bull; Three statements upon future political guidelines. Analyse and note the main 
similarities and main differences between the three. 
&bull; From the two articles: What are the main questions in the relationship between 
politics and economics. What/who decides what will happen, and what the 
consequences of this? 
&bull; Use the two articles to pond some causes for political, social reactions towards 
the political processes in EU. Evaluate the importance of this. 
&nbsp;</div>
&bull; File 2: Politics, peace and war

<div style="margin-left: 40px;">a1) Note what the issues in the criticism. How should it be in the future? 
a2) The three articles deal with the relationship between politics and economy, or the 
people and big business. Sum up from the three articles what seems to be the main 
claims/allegations about this relationship. What are the stated consequences of the 
current situation? What to do? 
b) The two articles link NATO, Western countries, war and their specific global 
interests. State what are the core issues in the two articles, and what are their current 
and future implications. Are there any solutions to this? 
&nbsp;</div>
&bull; File 3: Social welfare

<div style="margin-left: 40px;">&bull; The two articles deal with causes for poverty, non-welfare, and some principles 
for having welfare. Note the main causes mentioned and the principles for a kind 
of solution. 
&nbsp;</div>
&bull; File 4: Out of the crisis

<div style="margin-left: 40px;">a) Sum up the articles, their analyses of the current approaches to come out of the 
crisis, and what should be done.</div>
 
&bull; File 5: Towards a greener future?
<div style="margin-left: 40px;">&bull; According to the article: What is the right green policy, and how does it differ 
from the current policy? 
&nbsp;</div>
&bull; File 6: Migrations

<div style="margin-left: 40px;">a) Sum up the arguments from the three articles: The main reasons for migration to 
Europe, eventual problems related to this, what could Europe and what could the 
migrants gain from the migration? 
b) How come an extended migration from Europe? Is that a problem?</div>

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AGNĖ ŠIVICKYTĖ, DNS 2018

The  present political scene in Europe and the future

While reading to the study task’s directives, introduction, and files I got the feeling that the study task is so broad and big and it talks about everything not making a clear line. After all, together with my teammates had a conference to present different sub-topics for the study task and then it became a bit clearer while putting it all together. While discussing from the economy and politics to the USA influence and NATO, crisis,  different spectrums of nationalism,  to the migration and different topics in between I realized that we can not talk about the political scene in Europe not touching these topics. It is very complex and to at least grasp what is going on, we need to understand the various forces, interests that are influencing the current political scene. At the same time we can not distinguish cultural, social aspects from political or economic it is deeply interconnected. So to understand the reality that we are living in we need to go step by step through some important topics that were mentioned in the study task, files. It is also important to understand that the study task and the presented files were mainly made in 2014-2015. The period in between, which is around 5 years, can change things drastically, for example right now, as we are facing the situation of pandemic crisis, which is challenging our society in many different ways. And it is just important while reading to the files, reflect on the current situation.
So firstly, we can start from the first part which was presented in the study task.  Which was about Democracy and Politics, the base from where we can start to build the understanding. Firstly, if we are discussing democracy, it is good to understand, to define what it is.  As Aristotle defined democracy,  as the constitution in which the free and the poor, being in the majority are controlling the government. Of course, the Athenian democracy model can not just simply fit in our society nowadays, but it can be a point on which we can build up. According to the Ted talk, by the greek economist and politician Yanis Varoufakis “ Capitalism will eat democracy-  unless we speak up”, Inclusion of the working “poor”, who has right for the free speech and political decisions that should be as equal as everybody else, while having decision making processes concerning matters of the country. But nowadays, the power of the decisions has turned from the political sphere more to the economical one. Which means that while corporate power is rapidly increasing, political power is changing its shape, when political good devaluing. It creates inequality, while the biggest corporates have the power and can choose where to invest and what to influence. As a result, capitalism finds away in the upcoming future to automatize,  whole working class, eliminating it from the service. Replacing human power with robots, automatized programs, androids, etc. It is an example of how political and economical sides are separating, which can create bigger holes in the system as unemployment, which in the end will affect ordinary people, creating social conflicts. As an idea, or the ideal scenario proposed by the Yanis Varoufakis,  could be that at the level of the enterprise or a capital market when you earn capital as you work and this capital is following you from one working place to another you create an ownership possibility. It means that the workers that work in one working space would also own it. And it would create no more separation between those who work and those who make the big decisions. That means no more capital of war between capital and labor. 
Another topic that was talked in the article nr.2 and nr.3  about the neo-liberal economic policies and the free market. The article “The market vs state: The wrong debate”, was criticizing fundamental falsehoods about the neo-liberal economy. Firstly, giving the example of the 2008 economic crisis and how it was unfolding. Acceptance of an unsustainable level of private debt, mostly held by people that financially couldn't pay it back. That was also funded by the combination of overpriced housing markets and markets that were in secondary financial risk. The housing markets were sustained by government actions. It was followed by irresponsible and not considered actions that later on caused a global economic crisis. Second falsehood, that capitalistic economy is running the best while being closest to the free market. There should be balance or a combination between the market sector and non- market sector. Non-market sector means includes knowledge work (including all kinds of research) and care sectors.  The main point is that institutions like hospitals or schools don’t bring so much income. The main purpose of these institutions is not focused to profit win, rather quality education and health care, which is, in my opinion, a basic need. Here where the clash comes, when everything becomes privatized. As an example, we can take the USA privatized health care, which creates massive social distractions.
When it comes to the point, when we are talking about the political scene in Europe, it is important to mention, how of a big influence other countries, such as the USA has to it. Quite a big part of the files was dedicated to explaining the USA influence in the overall politics. One of the big parts of it is military and  NATO, its presence in the European countries.  NATO is an organization that was created in 1949, with the main aim to unite against the enemy-  former Soviet Union. Right now NATO has 30 countries that are part of the organization but wait, there is no enemy anymore? The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but NATO is still actively are doing its missions, with another agenda, which is more beneficial to the USA. What is important to mention that from the start of NATO creation, the “non-formal” leadership position took the USA. (Non-formal in the sense, that by the agreement, all the countries has equal rights). But as the USA was one of the main forces to create the organization and at the same time to maintain it by investing money, it also has the power to be in the lead. In this way, the USA/ NATO is influencing European countries, to build certain facilities, do training, or even support the men power in certain military operations. 
In the speech of the Michel Chossudovsky: The Globalization of War,  it was more elaborated about the huge USA and war influence. One of the examples that Michel Chossudovsky was giving was about fake terrorism. When the USA media spreads massive propaganda towards the Middle East, as the terrorist. That creates racism and anger from the people, who also after that supports military power and not even questions the USA forced interventions in the different countries all over the world. As an example, we can take Afghanistan, when after the 9/11 attacks, USA announced a war situation towards Afghanistan as a reply to an attack, which in the end was just an excuse to start a war. And why there? According to Michel Chossudovsky, one of the main reasons for all the interventions is natural resources, mainly oil.
What happens after the war situation? Refugee crisis… While millions of people from the Middle East and North Africa were migrating to Europe we face a huge crisis. Crisis of management and integration. When people from the other cultures start to arrive, suddenly, some right-wing parties are rising, with the nationalistic agenda and arguments against the migration. In the end, it's us, consciously or unconsciously contributing to the war and not facing consequences of a flow of refugees.
So looking and analyzing the political scene of Europe is quite difficult and complex. It is difficult to understand all the influencing sides and forces and honestly, I didn't manage to mention it all, and to analyze, I think I don’t carry such a knowledge to explain and understand it fully. But by having at least some part of it we can still think and brainstorm about the upcoming future.
While knowing the situation of a pandemic it is very unpredictable what can happen in the future. By reading different articles and discussing with some of my teammates, we got to a conclusion that probably after and maybe already during the pandemic we gonna face the situation of economic crisis. As already for a while some of the countries are under lockdown for a couple of months, which means stop of the economy.
 At the same time, I believe that in the future we will receive even more refugees and not just because of the war situations, but also from the countries that will face climate change consequences.
 At the same time, I think we will need to adapt our lifestyles to more sustainable ones. For example as using more renewable energy sources. 
All in all it is hard to know what will be the future, but by knowing the past and the present it is easier to predict the upcoming events.

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